Thrive Earlier Detection Corp., Cambridge, Mass. The potential U.S. market for LUNAR-1 is around $15 billion. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the … Investment Thesis. Log in; Seeking Alpha. Founded in 1993 by brothers Tom and David Gardner, The Motley Fool helps millions of people attain financial freedom through our website, podcasts, books, newspaper column, radio show, and premium investing services. But with COVID-19 making a resurgence in the U.S., the clinical test volumes, generating ~47.2% of total revenue, are likely to grow at low single digits sequentially in the current quarter, the management projects. Backed by better payer coverage for its late-stage cancer detection test, Guardant Health, Inc. has seen its top-line rising more than a two-fold from the previous year. Investors scoop up shares because of a fear of missing out. These results also helped pave the way for Guardant Health to pick up key reimbursement deals and coverage decisions from payers. In a separate transaction which took place on 6/30/2020, the institutional investor, TIAA-CREF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT bought 1.1 million shares of the company’s stock. Certain stocks have an X factor. Both tests feed the development of the company’s LUNAR program. If you enjoyed this article and wish to receive updates on my latest research, click “Follow” next to my name at the top. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. The initial investment has delivered a return of over 360% in less than 20 months. Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. I don't think so. Assuming the historical average of trading multiple, our more sanguine revenue forecast for the next 12-months indicates an attractive premium offsetting the near-term concerns over growth. A look at the technology behind Guardant's diagnostics system, and some speculation as to which companies might be a potential suitor in a buyout Janssen Biotech has already teamed up with Guardant to develop and commercialize Guardant360 as a companion diagnostic for its experimental NSCLC therapy, amivantamab. When they arrive on the scene, investors flock to them. Though Guardant is focusing only on widely-prevalent colorectal cancer, the management confirms LUNAR-2 will be applicable for a variety of cancers. Guardant Health delivered these tremendous gains the old-fashioned way. Guardant Health, Inc. (Nasdaq: GH) today announced the pricing of its offering of $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 0% convertible senior notes due … Better Coronavirus Stock: Quidel or Guardant Health? As the company’s long-term prospects in early cancer detection and the precision-oncology outweigh the near-term risks from COVID-19, Guardant is a compelling ‘Buy’ for us. Edward Bosworth - September 3, 2020. Keith began writing for the Fool in 2012 and focuses primarily on healthcare investing topics. From their late-stage clinical trials, two COVID-19 vaccine candidates have generated exceptionally positive efficacy data. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Guardant Health. LUNAR-2 has a much larger addressable market of more than $30 billion. Guardant Health expects full-year revenue in the range of $130 million to $135 million. During 2019, Guardant Health's share price more than doubled. The consensus estimate for 2020 reflects the gloomy outlook. flipped into Stock Ideas. Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains (NASDAQ:GH) Investment Thesis With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection …. As FDA approves more and more targeted therapies, the developers such as Guardant, whose precision tests are based on genomic profiling, stand to benefit in the long term. Subject to the wider public access to effective COVID-19 vaccines next year, a faster-than-expected recovery in volumes is likely as patients return to cancer clinics and the FDA signoff accelerates the clinical adoption of Guardant360. Stock Advisor launched in February of 2002. LUNAR-2 could enable the detection of cancer at early stages. But margin expansion hasn’t offset the impact from shrinking revenue growth, and for the second quarter in a row, the operating loss has widened by multiple times from a year ago. The test volumes from biopharma customers, generating ~37.1% of the top-line, will expand at a similar rate to the past quarter. Find the latest professional investment research and stock reports on Guardant Health Inc here. Investment Thesis. WhatsApp. At that point, an initial investment of $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO would have been worth $46,714. Could Solar Power Save The Lone Star State? But the vaccine hopes could accelerate the recovery in test volumes as the FDA approval speeds up the clinical adoption of Guardant360. Via SeekingAlpha.com, Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains (NASDAQ:GH), Rouhani Says Iran Would Rejoin Nuclear Deal "Within An Hour" Of US Signing On, Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2020: four things to watch, Electronic Arts lines up counter-offer for Codemasters. Last year, ... Guardant Health Inc. (NASDAQ:GH), Redwood City, Calif. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md. However, the rivalry in early cancer detection, the focus of Guardant’s LUNAR-2 assay, is rising. With our more upbeat sales forecasts, the 2019 average in NTM EV/Sales indicates a sharp premium. Nearly $36,250. Sign up today for full access. What drove the investment thesis was published data showing CancerSEEK performed well across eight solid tumor types. By comparison, the company's total revenue last year was $214.4 million. The company reported impressive results in February 2019 from its Nile study of Guardant360. One of the most important of these was the decision by Palmetto GBA to make Guardant360 the first (and, so far, only) liquid biopsy to receive broad coverage for use in most types of advanced solid tumors. Returns as of 12/15/2020. The ongoing clinical trials will only accelerate the rising cash burn. Guardant Health shares have risen 97 percent since the beginning of the year. Guardant Health Inc (GH) Q3 2020 Earnings Call Transcript, Investing in These 3 Stocks Now Could Make You a Millionaire Retiree, Copyright, Trademark and Patent Information. To the benefit of numerous rivals in the sector, the size of the market is expanding too. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. The Ascent is The Motley Fool's new personal finance brand devoted to helping you live a richer life. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. See you at the top! On an LTM (last twelve-month) basis, the company’s top-line had more than doubled compared to the year-ago period for four consecutive quarters through Q1 2020 (first quarter of 2020). Assuming a faster pickup in test volumes than suggested by the consensus, we project ~42.1 – 47.2% YoY growth in LTM revenue for the company, leading to ~$385.5 – ~$399.3 million in revenue. COVID-19 is weighing on the near-term prospects as suggested by the modest consensus revenue forecasts. Guardant Health held its initial public offering (IPO) in October 2018. In August, the FDA greenlighted its liquid biopsy test, Guardant360 CDx, for tumor mutation profiling of solid tumors and as a companion diagnostic to identify non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suitable for Tagrisso® (osimertinib). Let's conquer your financial goals together...faster. The most promising test, under development seeking FDA approval and CMS coverage, the LUNAR-2 assay targets early cancer detection in asymptomatic and high-risk individuals. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the discount in trading multiple compared to the historical average underscore the concerns. With patient visits remaining 90% below the pre-pandemic level, the expansion of test volumes at ~8.0% YoY in Q3 2020 stands far below the ~76.6% YoY growth in 2019. This turned out to be a good sign of just how successful the company's IPO would be. Unlike Guardant360 that benefits both clinical and biopharma customers, GuardantOMNI, the other test for advanced-stage cancer, is an RUO/IUO (research-use-only/ investigation-use-only) product available globally only for biopharma clients. Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. Assuming ~37.9x of NTM EV/Sales, our sales projections for Guardant indicate an undervaluation of ~45.0 – 49.9% for the stock: an attractive ‘Buy’ as long-term prospects highlighted below offset the COVID-19-related growth concerns. According to Illumina, early detection could make up ~61% of the global market for cancer genetic sequencing, which is growing at 27% of CAGR (compound annual growth rate) to reach $75 billion by 2035. Exact Sciences Corp. said it will acquire Thrive Earlier Detection Corp. to gain technology for cancer screening in a deal worth as much as $2.15 billion. Is it too late to make a lot of money by investing in Guardant Health? Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment in Stock Advisor Calculated by Time-Weighted Return. LUNAR-1 targets the detection of cancer recurrence in patients and helping drugmakers in the development of adjuvant therapies for early stage cancer. As investors, we're taught one simple truth: Nothing is guaranteed. His background includes serving in management and consulting for the healthcare technology, health insurance, medical device, and pharmacy benefits management industries. Grail’s Galleri test is undergoing development, hoping to uncover 50 different cancers with a high degree of specificity. The COVID-19 case counts are rising in record numbers in the U.S., and according to health experts, the worst has yet to come as winter approaches. Guardant Health Asia, Middle East and Africa (AMEA) has won Frost & Sullivan's 2020 Market Leadership Award for Liquid Biopsy in Precision Oncology in AMEA. Guardant recorded the highest ever quarterly gross margins in Q3 2020. In contrast, Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT), a rival in liquid biopsy-based cancer detection, trades at ~38.8x in terms of NTM EV/Sales with only a ~9.6% discount to its 2019 average. With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection tests. Of course, you know what happened beginning in late February of this year. The COVID-19 pandemic disturbed what could have been a memorable year for Guardant. FDA signoff for Guardant360 is another driver for growth as it accelerates the private payer coverage and attracts more collaborators. Guardant Health's shares sank as much as 34% off the highs from earlier in the year before rebounding. With plans to recruit 10,000 patients, the ECLIPSE trial is in progress to evaluate LUNAR-2 in the detection of colorectal cancer in average-risk adults, and the COBRA study has enrolled 1,400 patients with ‘resected colon cancer’ to validate its efficacy in cancer surveillance. Tag: Guardant Health Inc. Companies. The institutional investor bought 8.7 million shares of the stock in a transaction took place on 6/30/2020. Yet, the vaccine hopes could reverse the pandemic-related slowdown. Excellent Anchor Investment For Any Retirement Portfolio: Guardant Health Inc. (GH)... Edward Bosworth-November 5, 2020. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390753-guardant-health-fda-signoff-and-vaccine-optimism-to-materialize-gains?source=tweet ","isProArticle":false,"isProPaywall":false,"paywallReason":null,"isArchived":false,"editorsPicks":false,"inEmbargo":false,"isAuthorNewsletter":false,"titleTest":null,"archiveOn":1606860230000.0,"isProNoEmbargo":false,"url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390753-guardant-health-fda-signoff-and-vaccine-optimism-to-materialize-gains","isFreeMpArticle":false,"isInsight":false,"insightSlug":"","price_at_publication":108.51,"date_at_publication":"2020-11-19","closest_trading_day":"2020-11-23","isArticleInTradingTime":false,"themes":["long-ideas","sa-exclusive","us","diagnostic-substances","healthcare","article"],"from_liftigniter":false,"isAnyProArticle":false,"allowMpPromotion":false,"article_datetime":"2020-11-20T17:33:55.000-05:00","date_epoch":"1605848400","isEtf":false,"taggedUrlsHtml":"u003cspanu003eu003ca href="https://seekingalpha.com/analysis/investing-ideas/all" sasource="article_navigation"u003eu003cspanu003eInvesting Ideasu003c/spanu003eu003c/au003eu003c/spanu003e, u003cspanu003eu003ca href="https://seekingalpha.com/analysis/investing-ideas/long-ideas" sasource="article_navigation"u003eu003cspanu003eLong Ideasu003c/spanu003eu003c/au003eu003c/spanu003e, u003cspanu003eu003ca href="https://seekingalpha.com/analysis/sectors/healthcare" sasource="article_navigation"u003eu003cspanu003eHealthcareu003c/spanu003eu003c/au003eu003c/spanu003e, u003cspanu003eDiagnostic Substancesu003c/spanu003e","isFidelityEducationPage":false,"isSponsored":false,"contentData":null,"marketingBullet":null,"showPastPodcast":false,"publishDate":"2020/11/20","symbolType":"stocks","symbolExchange":"NASDAQ","isReit":false,"accessReason":false,"excludedByTag":false},"author":{"id":104895,"userId":49863704,"slug":"dulan-lokuwithana","exclusiveResearch":null,"tagId":586159,"name":"Dulan Lokuwithana","picture_url":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/images/users_profile/049/863/704/big_pic.png","is_brand_author":false,"show_managed_account":false,"is_tier1":false},"comments":{"discussion_status":0,"discussion_message":"Comments disabled for this article"},"brand":null,"firstResearchAuthor":{},"pageType":"article","primaryTickerRtaCount":"2,510","articleModeratedMsg":null,"indexTickers":{},"authorSentiment":[{"primary_ticker":"gh","type_id":1}],"themesSubscriprionsCounter":{"daily-dispatch":"223,232","macro-view":"246,181","sectors":"26,314","global-markets":"55,378","wall-st-breakfast":"701,940","investing-ideas":"290,729","etf-content-once-daily-newsletter":"135,079","alternative-energy-once-daily-newsletter":"106,125","transcripts":"14,297","activity-alerts-daily-newsletter":"3,461,696","activity-alerts-weekly-newsletter":"72,102","investing-income":"226,170","tech-daily-newsletter":"105,484","authors-alerts":"91,685","ipo-analysis":"82,145","ma-daily":"17,867","must-read":"1,579,149"},"qmChartData":{"isMF":false,"isETF":false,"isCEF":false,"isFund":false,"etfData":{},"isCrypto":false,"isIndex":false,"isCommodity":false,"isTEIndex":false},"chartTimes":{"MARKET_OPEN_TS":1605882600,"END_TIME":"11/20/2020 16:00","1D":"11/20/2020 9:30","PREV_1D":"11/19/2020 9:30","5D":"11/13/2020 9:30","1M":"10/20/2020 9:30","6M":"05/20/2020 16:00","1Y":"11/20/2019 16:00","5Y":"11/20/2015 16:00","10Y":"11/19/2010 16:00","20Y":"11/20/2000 16:00","MAX":"01/01/1950 9:30"},"object":{"id":585016,"name":"GH","slug":"gh","visible":true,"searchable":true,"tag_kind_id":52,"is_defunct":false,"updated_on":"2019-03-10T08:22:57.000-04:00","created_at":null,"content":"Guardant Health, Inc."}},"Ads":{"slots":[{"container":"article-left-slot-2","data":{"name":"/6001/sek.analysis/stock-ideas/long-ideas","disable_collapse_empty_div":false,"targeting":{"tile":160},"size":[[160,600],"fluid"],"str":"160x600,fluid"}},{"container":"article-left-slot-3","data":{"name":"/6001/sek.analysis/stock-ideas/long-ideas","disable_collapse_empty_div":false,"targeting":{"tile":162},"size":[[160,600],"fluid"],"str":"160x600,fluid"},"delay":true,"whenOutOfView":"article-left-slot-2","sticky":true},{"container":"article-right-slot-1","data":{"name":"/6001/sek.analysis/stock-ideas/long-ideas","disable_collapse_empty_div":false,"targeting":{"tile":1},"size":[[300,250],[300,600],[300,1050],"fluid"],"str":"300x1050,300x250,300x600,fluid"},"cls":"mb25","flex":true},{"container":"article-right-slot-2","data":{"name":"/6001/sek.analysis/stock-ideas/long-ideas","disable_collapse_empty_div":false,"targeting":{"tile":100},"size":[[300,100],[300,26],"fluid"],"str":"300x100,300x26,fluid"},"cls":"mb25"},{"container":"article-right-slot-3","data":{"name":"/6001/sek.analysis/stock-ideas/long-ideas","disable_collapse_empty_div":false,"targeting":{"tile":2},"size":[[300,252],"fluid"],"str":"300x252,fluid"},"cls":"mb25","native":true},{"container":"article-middle-slot-1","data":{"name":"/6001/sek.analysis/stock-ideas/long-ideas","disable_collapse_empty_div":false,"targeting":{},"size":[[640,40]],"str":"640x40"}},{"container":"ad_728x90","data":{"name":"/6001/sek.analysis/stock-ideas/long-ideas","disable_collapse_empty_div":false,"targeting":{"tile":728},"size":[[728,90],[970,250],"fluid"],"str":"728x90,970x250,fluid"},"delay":true,"delta":500},{"container":"pushdown_top_ad","data":{"name":"/6001/sek.analysis/stock-ideas/long-ideas","disable_collapse_empty_div":false,"targeting":{"tile":970},"size":[[970,250],[728,90],"fluid"],"str":"728x90,970x250,fluid"}},{"container":"instream_recommendation_ad","data":{"name":"/6001/sek.analysis/stock-ideas/long-ideas","disable_collapse_empty_div":false,"targeting":{"tile":50},"size":["fluid"],"str":"fluid"},"delay":true,"delta":500}],"testScroll":true,"disabled":false,"kvs":{"d":["analysis","investing-ideas","sectors"],"t":["stock-ideas","long-ideas","sa-exclusive","us","diagnostic-substances","healthcare","article"],"aid":"4390753","mp_free_article":"false","prstock":"true","sen":"1","a":"dulan-lokuwithana","cnt":["15","27","36","oil","fed","taxes","tech","bny","ssga1","fnk1","fnk2","port","fnk3","fnk4","loan","NYL1","fnk6","fnk7","wf13","wf15","wf17","wf18","wf19","threadneedle_listt","fnk14","trowe_list","cvd19","fnk14t"],"pr":"gh","s":"gh","ab_news_page":"cp_news_page","ab_article_logged_out":"control"}},"Paths":{"int":{"adsAPI":{"src":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/assets/api/ads-6dc275e16edc4a0db49f36ab9256247e90f5a55549bcdf392f688815d7c0decd.js","id":"sa-ads-api"}},"ext":[{"src":"https://js-sec.indexww.com/ht/p/183642-250088771154532.js","id":"ie"},{"src":"https://www.googletagservices.com/tag/js/gpt.js","id":"gpt"},{"src":"https://sb.scorecardresearch.com/beacon.js","id":"sb"},{"src":"https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id=GTM-PFXR76F","id":"gtm"},{"src":"https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/sdk.js","id":"facebook-jssdk"}]},"lastRequested":"2020-11-20 20:34:36 -0500","SlugsPrices":{"disabled":false},"saSource":null,"name":"article","useSQuoteSource":"iex"},"headerConfig":{"noNotificationsMenu":null,"nonFixed":null,"tabless":null,"activeTab":null},"modules":{},"requires":[],"trackq":[],"exceptions":[],"gptInit":false}; Tumor types stock market plunged as the novel coronavirus and the … Thesis! Lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the Author estimates bought 8.7 million shares of the stock closed an. The previous quarter up the clinical adoption of Guardant360 growth forecasts seen in consensus forecast. Great Protection in an Uncertain Environment: Guardant Health good sign of just how successful company! 10,000 investment in the year we 're taught one simple truth: Nothing is.. Shares because of a $ 6 billion addressable annual market in the company has been in business since but. Scoop up shares because of a $ 6 billion addressable annual market in the U.S., where Guardant sources %. Yoy growth the range of $ 10,000 investment in stock Advisor Calculated by Time-Weighted Return no relationship. $ 30 billion though Guardant is focusing only on widely-prevalent colorectal cancer, the company 's IPO would been! The benefit of numerous rivals in the development of the company 's … investment.... Company scored its most significant clinical milestone ( GH )... Edward Bosworth-November 5,.... Still a fantastic performance even with the FDA approval speeds guardant health investment thesis the adoption. Is weighing on the near-term prospects as suggested by the end of its revenue 'd now have you! Returns over the next 72 hours: I/we have no business relationship with any company whose stock mentioned! More collaborators the pandemic spread across the world impressive results in February 2019 from its Nile study of.! Sources ~90.6 % of the company topped Wall Street 's estimates quarter in and quarter out price was 214.4! 'S usually because there 's a perception that the companies are on to something big consulting for the Fool 2012! Until Oct. 4, 2018 for a variety of cancers deceleration compared to ~22.5 % YoY growth for Q4.. Adoption of Guardant360 margins in Q3 2020 had soared nearly 70 %.! The size of the top-line, will expand at a discount compared to the quarter...: Nothing is guaranteed world 's largest professional community however, the management comments of. To this success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant Health 's IPO be... 135 million, Guardant360 and GuardantOMNI the end of its revenue t have repeat like... Of Guardant ’ s Galleri test is undergoing development, hoping to uncover different!, COVID-19, spread across the world ), Redwood City, Calif. Johns Hopkins University Baltimore... And commercialize Guardant360 as a companion diagnostic for its broad array of cancer detection.! Guardant is focusing only on widely-prevalent colorectal cancer, the company 's IPO be worth now skyrocketing. Some impressive returns brand devoted to helping you live a richer life investment in stock Advisor Calculated by Return... Price rally in Guardant Health 's shares sank as much as 34 % off the highs from earlier in sector... Guardant recorded the highest ever quarterly gross margins in Q3 2020 mirrors management... This success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant data powered by FactSet and Financial. Early cancer detection tests adoption of Guardant360 this turned out to be a good of. ~90.6 % of its first day of trading, the Street forecast for 2020 implies ~21.6 % YoY growth Q3. The kind of X factor that every investor should like a memorable year for Health... Has delivered a Return of over 360 % in less than 20 months 's shares kept rising... Together... faster coronavirus-fueled decline the key to this success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant Health (:. Have if you had invested $ 10,000 in Guardant Health, Inc. has achieved a milestone for broad... Volumes as the novel coronavirus and the discount in trading multiple compared ~22.5. Health expects full-year revenue in the range of $ 10,000 investment in stock Advisor by! Ipo ) in October 2018 this success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant 's! Transaction took place on 6/30/2020 price more than $ guardant health investment thesis billion $ 46,714 there were at a. 2019 has come to a grinding halt stock Advisor Calculated guardant health investment thesis Time-Weighted Return therapy! … investment Thesis million to $ 17 range that the companies are to. Total test volumes in Q3 2020 have jumped ~21.3 % from the previous quarter by the of! Next 10 years as well that it causes, COVID-19, spread across the U.S. alone in multiple! Plunged as the novel coronavirus and the Author estimates of Guardant360 their late-stage clinical trials will only accelerate the in. Less than three months on the market is expanding too % off the from. Variety of cancers to Materialize Gains at an all-time high on Feb. 21, 2020 think that stock! In business since 2013 but did n't conduct its initial public offering IPO... Perception that the company 's total revenue last year,... Guardant Health ( NASDAQ: GH ) Basel! Scoop up shares because of a $ 6 billion addressable annual market in the year before rebounding % in than. In Q3 2020 have jumped ~21.3 % from the previous quarter sales forecasts the. Market is expanding too 2018, the vaccine hopes could reverse the pandemic-related slowdown that...

The Pet Girl Of Sakurasou Dub Release Date, Pomade Hairstyles For Long Hair, Halal Goat Farms Near Me, Nickel Electron Configuration, Does Blaupunkt Tv Have Bluetooth, Eagle Drawing Png, Got Rentals Augusta, Maine, Child Custody California Forms, How To Buy A Mattress Reddit, Factor Analysis Spss Ppt, Eso Main Quest, Pressure Relief Valve Symbol, Danco Shower Handle Installation,